MY FAVORITE PAGES

Thursday, December 4, 2014

JOHN DONOVAN DECEMBER 4, 2014 ARTICLES

Will falling oil prices curb America’s shale boom?


Screen Shot 2014-10-01 at 20.37.24

Screen Shot 2014-12-04 at 21.18.54

This time some of the pain will be taken by the big integrated energy firms, such as Exxon Mobil and Shell. After a decade of throwing shareholders’ cash at prospects in the Arctic and deep tropical waters to little effect, they began cutting budgets in 2013.

Extracts from an article published by The Economist on 6 December 2014

In a bind

Screen Shot 2014-12-04 at 21.34.15Abundant oil and gas have been extracted from underground rocks by blasting them with a mixture of water, chemicals and sand—“fracking”, in the jargon.
…the firms responsible embody an all-American formula of maverick engineers, bold entrepreneurs and risk-hungry capital markets that no country can match.
Yet now that oil prices have fallen by almost 40% in six months, these firms’ mettle is being tested. Across America shale-shocked executives will spend Christmas overhauling their strategies to cope with life at $70 per barrel, even as investors dump their firms’ shares and bonds.
Oil-price slumps usually lead to cuts in energy firms’ investments. Production eventually falls, helping prices to stabilise. In 1999, after the Asian crisis, global investment in oil and gas production dropped by 20%. A decade later, after the financial crisis, investment fell by 10%, then recovered.
This time some of the pain will be taken by the big integrated energy firms, such as Exxon Mobil and Shell. After a decade of throwing shareholders’ cash at prospects in the Arctic and deep tropical waters to little effect, they began cutting budgets in 2013. Long-term projects equivalent to about 3% of global output have been deferred or cancelled, says Oswald Clint of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm. Most “majors” assume an oil price of $80 when making plans, so deeper cuts are likely.
And if and when prices recover, new wells can be brought on stream in weeks, not years. America’s capital markets will roar back into life, forgiving all previous sins. “There is always a new set of investors,” says the boss of a one of the world’s biggest natural-resources firms. He predicts a shale crash—and a rapid rebound.
SEE ALSO Cheikhs v shale

Church of England investors file shareholder resolutions at BP and Shell

Screen Shot 2014-12-04 at 20.55.28The Church Commissioners and Church of England Pensions Board have announced this week that they are in the process of co-filing shareholder resolutions on climate change at the AGMs of two of world’s biggest oil and gas companies – BP and Shell.

Church investors file shareholder resolutions at BP and Shell

By Edward Mason, Church Commissioners Head of Responsible Investment
The Church Commissioners and Church of England Pensions Board have announced this week that they are in the process of co-filing shareholder resolutions on climate change at the AGMs of two of world’s biggest oil and gas companies – BP and Shell. This is one of the ways in which the Church of England’s national investing bodies are deepening and strengthening their engagement with the businesses in which they invest on the ethical issues that are of the greatest importance to the Church.
It is clear from the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released this year, that the world is on a path towards dangerous climate change. It is imperative that over the decades ahead we make the transition to a low carbon economy.
As shareholders Church investors have a vital opportunity to influence the strategy on climate change of the companies whose shares we own. That’s why the largest members of the Church Investors Group – whose members have investments of £15 billion – helped to establish a major new investor initiative to engage on climate change with the 10 largest extractives and utilities companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Every year the performance of global companies on climate change is rated by an NGO we support, CDP (www.cdp.net). CDP’s highest rating is an A rating. We call our initiative ‘Aiming for A’ because we want to see all ten of these companies achieve CDP A ratings. The initiative is led by CCLA Investment Management, the specialist church and charity fund managers who manage over £1.5bn of Church of England money in the CBF Church of England funds. The investor coalition also includes the £150bn Local Authority Pension Fund Forum (LAPFF) and Rathbone Greenbank, the ethical fund manager.
The intiative has already had a significant impact on the performance of the 10 companies on climate change. When we started engaging in 2012 only one of the companies was rated A. Five were rated B, four C and one E (there were 11 companies then, but two of them have since merged). Now all of the 10 companies with whom we are engaging have A or B ratings.
We have chosen to file shareholder resolutions at BP and Shell because they have the biggest carbon footprints of all the companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, and they are yet to achieve A ratings (they are both rated B). Of course oil and gas companies have a particular responsibility because the fuels they produce contribute to climate change when they are burned.
The shareholder resolutions are intended to challenge the companies to run their businesses so that they participate constructively in the transition to a low carbon economy. The resolutions are supportive, but stretching. The idea is to give all of the shareholders of both companies the opportunity to signal that, like us, they want to see BP an Shell adapt their businesses over the long term for a low carbon economy. We want the companies to be sustainably profitable. We hope that a large proportion of other shareholders will agree when it comes to the vote at the BP and Shell AGMs next spring.
Edward Mason, Church Commissioners Head of Responsible Investment
BP: April 2015 AGM
Special resolution – strategic resilience for 2035 and beyond
That in order to address our interest in the longer term success of the Company, given the recognised risks and opportunities associated with climate change, we as shareholders of the Company direct that routine annual reporting from 2016 includes further information about: ongoing operational emissions management; asset portfolio resilience to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) scenarios; low-carbon energy research and development (R&D) and investment strategies; relevant strategic key performance indicators (KPIs) and executive incentives; and public policy positions relating to climate change. This additional ongoing annual reporting could build on the disclosures already made to CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project) and/or those already made within the Company’s Energy Outlook, Sustainability Review and Annual Report.
RELATED

Church of England challenges BP and Shell over global warming (THE GUARDIAN)

Extract
The Church of England has challenged BP and Shell, two of the world’s biggest oil companies, to take responsibility for their carbon footprints and limit their contribution to global warming.

Church challenges Shell and BP over climate change(THE FINANCIAL TIMES)

The Church of England has waded in to the debate over climate change by urging Royal Dutch Shell and BP to cut their carbon emissions and invest more in renewables, the first time it has attempted to use its position as an investor as a “force for good”.

Shell settles Californian environmental contamination lawsuit for $91 million

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 22.21.25

Shell’s settlement with 1,491 residents will be a total of $90 million

From The Daily Breeze
City officials have announced final settlement agreements involving Shell Oil Co., the city, and hundreds of current and former residents of the Carousel neighborhood in the city’s southern end over a contamination lawsuit stemming from a former oil tank farm at the site.
The details of the two separate settlements between Shell and the city, and Shell and residents, weren’t disclosed during Tuesday night’s City Council meeting. But Shell’s settlement with 1,491 residents will be a total of $90 million divided with attorneys and disbursed by a mediator based on health and property damage claims, according to documents obtained by the Daily Breeze.
The neighborhood was developed from a tank farm into a residential community in the 1960s. Widespread petroleum contamination was found beneath hundreds of the homes in 2008 and an environmental investigation began. Shell is now finalizing a plan to remove the contaminated soil.
— Sandy Mazza


The TRUTH will set you FREE.

JOHN DONOVAN DECEMBER 3, 2014 NEWS ROUND UP

Worst Shell oil spill into Niger Delta for years

Screen Shot 2014-10-30 at 09.22.43COMMENT RECEIVED ON THIS REUTERS ARTICLE FROM A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR:

Shell says the leak was the result of attempted theft…and the leak occurred seven or eight miles from the shore? I guess the oil thieves are now using submarines…..

Reuters report December 03, 2014

Thousands of Barrels of Shell Oil Spill Into Niger Delta

BONNY ISLAND, NIGERIA – Niger Delta fishermen are no strangers to seeing oil spill into their waters from leaky pipelines, but even they were shocked by the scale of the slick stretching for miles from a Shell facility across the swamps and into the ocean.
Some 3,800 barrels spilled recently, according to an investigation by Shell and government officials. It ranks as one of the worst in Nigeria for years, local environmental activists said.
A Shell spokesman said that some 1,200 barrels had been recovered as of Tuesday, and “recovery efforts are continuing” at the site on the Okolo Launch on Bonny Island.
Shell said the spill was caused by a failed crude theft. Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, loses tens of thousands of barrels per day to oil theft that often causes spills, although many are also caused by corroded pipelines.
Shell shut down its 28-inch pipeline carrying Bonny Light crude Nov. 22, but the origin of the spill was from the smaller 24-inch pipe, which was shut last year.
Crude washed up in pools in front of beach shacks in the affected site, coating the roots of palm trees and leaving a trail of dead sea life. In some areas, people scooped up the crude to fill drums and jerry cans.
“We saw dead fish, dead crabs. … This spill occurred seven, eight nautical miles from the shore … [so] the volume runs into thousands of barrels,” said Alagoa Morris, head of the Niger Delta Resource Center for Environmental Rights Action.
“We can’t go fishing anymore. It has destroyed our fishing equipment,” Bonny fisherman Boma Macaulay said, adding that it was the worst spill he had seen for at least five years.
Shell is under pressure to pay damages on other spills. Parliament said last month that it should pay nearly $4 billion for a spill at the offshore Bonga oilfield.
The Bodo community in Ogoniland is also suing for two massive spills in 2008 that devastated the area.
Shell said SPDC — a Shell-run joint venture majority-owned by the Nigerian government — deployed booms to contain the the latest spill.
A fisherman who has others working for him, Emmanuel Reuben, said his revenue had dropped sharply from an average of up to 50,000 naira ($280) a day to barely 5,000 naira a day because of the spill.
“That’s not even enough to fuel the boat I use for fishing,” he said.

Prospects of a Shell BP merger

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 12.29.57FROM A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR

Firstly, falls in oil price and resulting low stock prices tend to result in waves of takeovers.
Examples during the low price era of the late 1990s – early 2000s:
· Exxon took over Mobil
· Statoil took over Saga, Norsk Hydro
· Chevron took over Texaco, Unocal
· Total took over Fina and Elf
· BP took over Vastar, Amoco and Arco
Shell is notably absent from this list – over the past ten years the gossip on the street has considered possible mergers involving Shell, BP and Total and even the demerger of Shell Oil, but the numbers apparently did not add up. Perhaps the fall in share prices over the past six months and a lack of exploration opportunities has once again made mergers more attractive than organic growth.
In many cases the mergers were little more than acts of desperation when a company had lost its way, often as a result of poor management. Texaco was weakened by the Getty law suit, Elf was embroiled in corruption scandals, Unocal was running out of money. Shell came close to being taken over as a result of the reserves scandal, while BP still has Macondo hanging over its head.
There are a few big unresolved cases still hanging over the industry – Shell’s involvement with ENI in the OPL 245 bribery investigation, and the EU investigation of oil price fixing to name just two. The big banks have felt the wrath of regulators over the past few years, and perhaps there are a few more skeletons about to emerge from the cupboards of the oil industry. The assumption that Shell and BP will merge is a simple proposition, but Shell has no experience of making a merger work and I doubt whether BP needs any more on its plate. There may be some other possible scenarios about to play out.

Shell/BP takeover rumors

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 12.29.57Why Shell/BP takeover rumors are back

By CNBC’s Catherine Boyle 

The evergreen rumor that Shell could be looking to buy BP returned to the market Tuesday — and sent share prices of both companies higher.
Ever since Lord Browne, BP’s former chief executive, confirmed in his 2010 memoir that cautious talks to this effect took place in 2004, the potential megamerger of the two London-listed oil giants has whetted appetites in the markets.
Yet BP and Shell declined to comment on the rumor, and industry sources were sceptical of the deal. Neither company appears to have retained new banking advisers, often a sign that a deal may be on its way.
So why is this rumor resurfacing now?
Low oil price
It’s hard to believe that Brent crude was trading at over $100 a barrel as recently as mid-September; now analysts seem to be competing for the gloomiest picture of when, and at what price, the trough in oil prices will come.
This uncertainty has hit oil majors’ share prices, as it means production remain high, even as the price it sells oil for falls. As such, the potential purchase of such a company could look more attractive.
Yet a bid would have to be based on a belief that the oil price will recover in the medium term, which requires quite a lot of confidence at the moment.
“It’s an unfriendly oil price that gets valuations where someone on a spreadsheet thinks: ‘I could do something’,” Kit Juckes, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Societe Generale, told CNBC.
BP underpriced?
Just a few weeks ago, equity analysts at Oppenheimer published research arguing that, with the falling oil price, and BP currently trading at the lowest price/earnings ratio (around 7 times earnings) of its peers in the oil sector, the company could become a takeover target.
The company’s market value has plunged, but it is still one of the biggest dividend payers in the FTSE 100, which could mean that an acquirer would have to pay a substantial sweetener to get shareholder support.
Analysts unconvinced
Several analysts contacted by CNBC were extremely cynical about the prospects of a deal, with one dismissing it as “just trader chat,” although they declined to be quoted on the record.
Their reaction can be summed up like this: Ultimately, why would Shell, which has been selling off assets in recent months under new chief executive Ben van Beurden, undertake a huge acquisition which would take years to complete, and have the main effect of increasing its exposure to a similar business model?
Monopoly concerns
There are also pretty clear business overlaps between both companies, in terms of geographies and business areas, which might concern European competition authorities.
Russian question
Both companies have substantial Russian interests, including BP’s stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft, which has been hit by sanctions from the Western powers following the dispute in Ukraine. If you were running Shell in 2014/5, why would you expose your business to more Russian oil?
– By CNBC’s Catherine Boyle

BP and Shell in the takeover spotlight

Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 12.29.57Shell has also been suffering its own share of setbacks recently. Its Alaskan Arctic operations have proved frustrating and it has given up on a natural gas project in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a parliamentary committee in Nigeria is demanding it pay nearly $4bn in compensation for an oil spill in 2011.

The Independent: Oil companies BP and Shell in the takeover spotlight

Shares in Britain’s two oil champions – Shell and BP – have jumped as market rumours swept the City claiming the pair were planning a merger, highlighting jittery times for the industry at a time of five-year lows in the oil price.
Despite the fact the story was rubbished by City analysts, the speculation continued that Shell could buy its smaller rival in a deal that would be worth more than £200bn. BP’s share price jumped 5 per cent to 433.85p, valuing the company at £79bn. Shell shares rose 4 per cent to 2,292p, giving it a stock market value of £142bn.
Analysts pointed out that such a deal would be riddled with monopoly implications as the two both operate in many of the same locations around the world. “Investors in oil companies have taken a pounding on the low oil price. This will be some hedge funds talking up the shares to make a quick buck,” said one analyst, who asked not to be named.
“This will be a bunch of traders in a chatroom somewhere,” said another, referring to the private City internet chatrooms where traders discuss their investment ideas.
Low oil prices have historically triggered takeover activity as big companies seek cost savings and the power to keep a floor under the market price by controlling a greater share of the market.
BP’s takeover of Amoco in 1998 came at a time when oil was below $20 a barrel. That deal sparked a flurry of takeovers of other major players, with Exxon buying Mobil, Chevron taking over Texaco, and TotalFina snapping up Elf.
There had been talk of Shell taking out BP in the aftermath of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster as BP’s share price collapsed. However, BP’s ongoing liabilities for tens of billions of dollars over that spill, and its continued difficulties in rebuilding its reputation and win projects in the US have been seen as a deterrent to bidders.
Shell has also been suffering its own share of setbacks recently. Its Alaskan Arctic operations have proved frustrating and it has given up on a natural gas project in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, a parliamentary committee in Nigeria is demanding it pay nearly $4bn in compensation for an oil spill in 2011.
The TRUTH will set you FREE.