How much reliance can be placed on Royal Dutch Shell predictions?
How much reliance can be placed on predictions emerging from Shell scenarios team? Very little if past accuracy of Shell predictions is any guide. Six years ago the then head of Royal Dutch Shell, the clueless Jeroen van der Veer predicted that the world would begin to run out of oil within 7 years – that’s next year. Since then, the whole outlook for oil and gas reserves has changed dramatically as a result of fracking and the US will surpass Saudi as the worlds top oil producer by 2016.
By John Donovan
Bloomberg news has published an article today under the headline Shell Sees Stable Oil Price for 20 Years With Volatility Bursts
Extract
In Shell’s “tighter” supply scenarios, crude prices could steadily increase over the 20 next years, while still going through periods of volatility that could see Brent falling to $70 a barrel, Bentham said.
How much reliance can be placed on predictions emerging from Shell scenarios team?
Very little if past accuracy of Shell predictions is any guide.
Six years ago the then head of Royal Dutch Shell, the clueless Jeroen van der Veer predicted that the world would begin to run out of oil within 7 years – that’s next year.
His alarm call was also picked up by The Times: Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years.
Since then, the whole outlook for oil and gas reserves has changed dramatically as a result of fracking and the US will surpass Saudi as the worlds top oil producer by 2016.
In other words, Shell could not have been more wrong. So much for their predictions.
Shell’s fire sale
Royal Dutch Shell’s decision to unload a massive amount of assets is a troubling sign. Shell’s fire sale casts into doubt how effective it can be in producing growth this year, even with its promising projects. Shell recently suspended drilling in the Arctic. It’s also selling a stake in a liquefied natural gas project in Australia for $1.1 billion and may also consider unloading an interest in a U.S. pipeline project. These actions are part of a broader initiative in which Shell intends to sell $15 billion worth of assets over the next two years.
Glencore-Macquarie Said to Exit Race for Shell Australia Assets
February 12, 2014
Macquarie Group Ltd. (MQG) and Glencore Xstrata Plc (GLEN) dropped out of bidding for Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)’s Australian oil refinery and filling stations, according to four people with knowledge of the matter. The assets Shell is selling include storage terminals, filling stations and an oil refinery in Geelong, south of Melbourne. Shell is stepping up asset sales after new Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden promised last month to cut capital spending following the company’s first profit warning in a decade. The company, which plans to dispose of about $15 billion of assets, agreed Jan. 29 to sell part of its stake in an oilfield off Brazil to Qatar Petroleum International Ltd. for about $1 billion. A week earlier, it agreed to exit the Wheatstone liquefied natural gas project in Australia by selling its interests for $1.14 billion to Kuwait Foreign Exploration Petroleum Co. Shell is also seeking buyers for its interest in the Houston-to-Houma crude oil pipeline in the U.S. and for oilfields in Nigeria. It may also exit its investment in Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and some shale assets in the U.S.
Firesale: Shell to sell three North Sea oil fields
Exclusive: Oil giant insists it is committed to North Sea after telling staff it expects to sell assets as part of £9bn disposal programme
Royal Dutch Shell is poised to announce the sale of three of its fields in the North Sea as the company speeds up its plan to divest $15bn (£9bn) of assets.
Staff at the Anglo-Dutch oil major were briefed about the sale of the Anasuria, Nelson and Sean fields during the last few days and an announcement by the company is expected shortly, The Telegraph can reveal.
Jeff Lewis | February 12, 2014 5:18 PM ET
CALGARY – Royal Dutch Shell PLC told regulators it is halting work on its Pierre River mine in northern Alberta’s oil sands and that it has no idea when it may revive the blueprints. The Hague-based company this year cancelled plans to drill in Alaska’s Arctic and postponed development of a liquefied natural gas venture offshore Australia. The company issued a rare profit warning last month before reporting a 49% plunge in quarterly earnings to $2.9-billion.
FULL ARTICLE Photo credit: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
RELATED: The United States’ oil and gas industry has “over-fracked and over-drilled”, according to Matthias Bichsel, projects and technology director at Royal Dutch Shell Plc.
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