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Saturday, January 31, 2015

BIG OIL: Who will blink first to set the M&A scramble in motion

BIG OIL: Who will blink first to set the M&A scramble in motion

Screen Shot 2015-01-31 at 08.53.48With more than $110 billion of oil and gas assets on the block as companies big and small count the cost of the collapse in oil prices, it is now a question of who will blink first to set the M&A scramble in motion.

Screen Shot 2015-01-29 at 13.58.27

Article published by Reuters 30 Jan 2015 under the headline:

Buyers bide their time in $110 bln oil asset sell-off

* Half of the assets on sale are in North America
* North Sea could prove a hard sell
* Potential buyers holding out for further price falls
Wave of deals expected within three to six months
By Ron Bousso
LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) – With more than $110 billion of oil and gas assets on the block as companies big and small count the cost of the collapse in oil prices, it is now a question of who will blink first to set the M&A scramble in motion.
Energy groups with spare cash, venture capital funds and multinational and state oil companies are eyeing assets with valuations that have largely tracked the halving of the oil price to less than $50 a barrel since last June.
But with the exception of a few recent moves, including Repsol’s $3 billion acquisition of Talisman Energy , buyers have largely stayed on the sidelines.
“Deals have just about dried up because you’re catching a falling knife,” said Simon Henry, chief financial officer at Royal Dutch Shell.
Though it hopes to sell assets worth $5 billion to $6 billion this year, Shell is not ruling out purchases of others that will increase its production base, Henry said.
Diverging views on when oil prices will recover leave plenty of potential for disagreement over the value of producing assets.
“If you end up paying at $50 (per barrel) plus a $30 premium and the oil price stays at $40 for three years you look a fool, or vice-versa,” Henry said.
Strength in refining and trading and low debt mean Shell appears more able than some rivals to cover dividends from operating cash flow.
The entire industry is in the midst of spending cuts to ensure shareholders get their pay-outs. Those savings will take time to kick in but, even in the short term, bank borrowing will help avoid hasty sales of assets.
The waiting game will continue for a little while yet, says Rupert Newall, BMO Capital Markets’ co-head of investment banking for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
“We are going to need another three months of these prices before sellers will become more realistic about the price environment they are selling into today,” Newall said.
DISTRESSED ASSETS
But as companies become “more desperate”, as Shell’s Henry puts it, and the divergence between valuations narrows, mergers and acquisitions are expected to flow.
“That will be driven in large part by financing challenges where there is a lot of debt rollover,” Henry said, adding that such pressure could be most keenly felt with smaller and medium-sized operations in North America but also some of the smaller European companies.
While private equity funds aim to buy distressed assets that they expect to flourish once the oil price stages its eventual recovery and majors look to expand production on the cheap, Asian national oil companies are expected to chase global capacity to secure supplies for their energy-hungry economies.
Potential buyers include Asian state-run companies such as Chinese oil champions CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC, as well as Indian and Japanese companies.
Based on company filings and announcements compiled by oil and gas consultancy 1Derrick, assets worth about $112 billion dollars are being offered for sale.
Half of these are North American, mostly U.S. oil and gas shale fields such as Anadarko’s Wyoming field and Reliance Industries’ Eagle Ford assets, as well as ConocoPhillips’ oil-sands operations in Canada.
Outside North America, Russian oil giant Rosneft is offering its non-core operations while Apache has mainly Egyptian assets for sale.
A total of 22 asset packages valued at about $16.6 billion were put up for sale in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared with 56 worth $41.1 billion in the previous nine months, says 1Derrick analyst Mangesh Hirve.
NORTH SEA PROFIT SQUEEZE
Similarly to Shell, BP is another oil major that has said it would consider acquisitions even as it sheds operations in higher-risk, higher-cost regions such as Nigeria and Iraq.
“The area where we believe there is going to be less interest is in the North Sea, which is a mature, high-costs oil province,” HSBC said.
Top players in the North Sea, including Total, BG Group and ConocoPhillips, are all trying to sell assets in the region, 1Derrick says, and the chief executive of French group Total said at the World Economic Forum last week that the company would be investing less in mature fields to focus on assets with potential for higher returns.
A host of small operators could also try to sell North Sea assets as profit margins are increasingly squeezed.
“In the North Sea, we have a proliferation of relatively small companies; very few move the needle for fund managers,” said Jon Fitzpatrick, head of Macquarie Capital’s oil and gas team.
With so much on offer around the world, it looks unlikely that investors such as Carlyle International Energy Partners will jump the gun.
As its managing director Marcel Van Poecke said this month: “After a crash like this, there is clearly more upside than downside. This will be a great time to invest, but there is no need to rush into it.”
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by David Goodman)

The TRUTH will set you FREE.

Oil rout gives Exxon and Shell reason to buy rival ‘sisters’

Oil rout gives Exxon and Shell reason to buy rival ‘sisters’

Screen Shot 2015-01-31 at 08.53.48…a major deal over the next year that will bring together two of the super majors, or see one of their smaller rivals swallowed up, is highly likely – and almost a certainty if historical precedent is anything to go by. Certainly, if the oil rout of the late 90s is anything to go by, a major deal among the industries big “sisters” is just around the corner.

Article By Andrew Critchlow, Commodities editor, The Telegraph, published 30 Jan 2015 under the headline:

Oil rout gives Exxon and Shell reason to buy rival ‘sisters’

First there were the “Seven Sisters”, a term coined in the 1950s to describe a cabal of the world’s biggest international oil companies (IOCs), which at that time controlled the supply of fossil fuels with a vice-like grip.
Then came the Yom Kippur war of 1973 and the subsequent Middle East oil crisis, which would gradually see their power over more than three-quarters of the world’s crude wrestled back by newly independent states in the Persian Gulf.
By the late 1990s – with oil prices at around $20 (£13.20) per barrel – the original seven had grown much bigger and been morphed into new giants, which consumed their smaller rivals in a race to acquire what little of the world’s oil and gas reserves still remained open to them.
By early 1999, a bone-shuddering plummet in the price of crude to $10 per barrel spurred a frenzied wave of mergers and acquisitions across the sector as companies moved quickly to grow bigger in order to survive. Exxon – the descendant of John D Rockefeller’s behemoth Standard Oil of New Jersey – swallowed up Mobil, creating what was until recently the world’s biggest company by market value.
A few months earlier, Sir John Browne pulled off the defining moment of his career when he transformed BP into Britain’s biggest oil major for a time by splashing out $48bn for Amoco – another relic of the giant Standard Oil conglomerate in the US. French super major Total gobbled up Petrofina and Elf, which had been a major sponsor of Nigel Mansell’s race-winning F1 car.
Now, a new oil shock – which has seen crude prices plummet by 60pc since June – has created an environment in which deal makers are once again talking about another spate of consolidation among the giants of the oil and gas industry: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Total and Italy’s ENI.
Could seven become six? Or will these giants of the industry spend capital, that would otherwise be employed in developing new oil fields, on buying up the best of the smaller operators? An oil and gas mega-merger is also a cute way to return value to shareholders at a time when the industry’s reliability for paying healthy dividends is being challenged.
Therefore, a major deal over the next year that will bring together two of the super majors, or see one of their smaller rivals swallowed up, is highly likely – and almost a certainty if historical precedent is anything to go by.
Two companies appear to be most vulnerable to being swallowed up: the giant BP and the smaller BG Group. Four years after the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon disaster blew a hole in its balance sheet and its Macondo oil well, the British supermajor is ripe to be the first victim in this next round of consolidation. Its enterprise value has slumped to £92bn since reaching a high of £130bn in 2007, while the level of debt on its books has more than doubled to £33bn over the same period, according to Bloomberg data.
Under the leadership of chief executive Bob Dudley, BP has spent most of the past four years conducting a garage sale of its assets to raise more than $38bn to cover the staggering cost of compensation, fines and clean-up from the Deepwater episode. The latest sale came this week when it offloaded part of a stake in two promising offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico to Chevron. However, we are approaching the end of its £14bn legal battle with the US government under the Clean Water Act, and the limits of what Mr Dudley may be prepared to offload from the company’s portfolio.
So now may be the time to gobble up what remains in one bite. Out of the big six super majors, only Exxon Mobil would appear to have deep enough pockets and the necessary clout in Washington to pull off this particularly ambitious deal.
A merger of the two would create a global corporate titan of almost unimaginable scale, with a combined enterprise value in excess of £400bn, leapfrogging Apple as the world’s largest company by a £70bn margin.
Its gargantuan size would come despite the slump in oil prices, but it is that drop which has arguably made the deal even more conceivable. Although neither company will comment on speculation surrounding a potential merger, the logic for them coming together has been made more compelling by Brent crude trading under $50 per barrel.
The other potential deal that increasingly makes sense, given the market-wide slump in energy prices, would see BG Group swallowed up by Royal Dutch Shell. The Anglo-Dutch giant is the most gas-focused of all the six supermajors. BG has a significant liquefied natural gas portfolio. It would thus would fit into Shell’s strategy to build a significant market lead in the delivery of a fuel that is powering growth in Asia’s rapidly developing economies.
Asked about the opportunities for acquisitions during Shell’s earnings this week, chief executive Ben van Beurden certainly didn’t rule out the prospect, despite slashing $15bn off its capital expenditure plans over the next three years. Mr van Beurden said that Britain’s largest oil company would take an “opportunistic” view when it comes to weaker capitalised upstream explorers.
BG Group could certainly fall into that category. It has endured a tough year following the departure of Chris Finlayson and pressure to bring major projects, such as its Queensland gas venture, on stream on schedule.
According to advisory firm AT Kearney, a lot will happen in the year ahead. “For some, the shake-out will be painful, but for those in the driver’s seat, it is a rare opportunity to reshape the competitive landscape to their advantage,” it said. “The sands are shifting, and all companies will need to be clear on their strategies to thrive – or even survival – in 2015.”
Certainly, if the oil rout of the late 90s is anything to go by, a major deal among the industries big “sisters” is just around the corner.


The TRUTH will set you FREE.

SHELL CIRCUMVENTED RA 7641

SYNDICATED ESTAFA


MY QUEST FOR SWINDLED 

RETIREMENT PAY BY SHELL



SWINDLING ITO, SYNDICATED ESTAFA


HOT PURSUIT
DUTY OF LAW ENFORCEMENT ENTITIES


SHELL SWINDLING OF RETIREMENT PAY 5TH YEAR

1001counts
SEE BELOW FOR THE 1001ST   TIME THE REITERATION OF DEMAND PAYMENT OF RETIREMENT PAY WHICH SHELL REFUSED TO HONOR IN THE PRESENCE AND DEEMED APPROVAL OF THE HONORABLE MAGISTRATES OF THE SUPREME COURT OF THE PHILIPPINES


Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is His delight... Proverbs Chapter 11  v. 1
Retirement Pay Law circumvented by Shell subject to penal provision provided for by Article 288 of the Labor Code of the Philippines.





CONTENTS

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