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Thursday, January 23, 2014

Madagascar has a plague epidemic — and it's spreading


SHARED FROM : Melanie Jones info@watchdog.net



Bubonic plague is spreading in Madagascar — and if we don't take action, it could become an epidemic.
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The bubonic plague once wiped a third of the world's population — and now, Black Death is sparking one of the worst outbreaks globally in years.
Black Death has already killed 20 villagers after a sudden outbreak in Madagascar, and the Red Cross warns the island nation is at risk of a plague epidemic. Even worse, strains of the disease seem to be spreading, and may even be mutating to populate at lower elevations.
The World Health Organization needs to send help to Madagascar, and to keep this potentially deadly disease from spreading. With antibiotics, bubonic plague is now treatable — but without them, this devastating illness will cause lymph swelling, pustules, gangrene, and an agonizing death. 
That's a fate no one should suffer — and a problem we can't afford to ignore. Please, join us in calling on WHO to start beating this plague virus back, treating victims and keeping it from spreading!
PETITION TO THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: Don't ignore the bubonic plague outbreak in Madagascar. Help the Red Cross keep it from being an epidemic, sending medicine and stopping it from spreading the other nations.

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-- The folks at Watchdog.net
P.S. If the other links aren't working for you, please go here to sign: http://act.watchdog.net/petitions/4115?n=53753726.kOCJNw


The TRUTH will set you FREE.

JOHN DONOVAN JANUARY 23, 2014 ARTICLES

Ex-Shell Oil president: ‘I felt extorted’

Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 07.56.54The former president of Shell Oil USA didn’t candy-coat it: America’s political fund-raising system, he said, amounts to legalized extortion. “I feel extorted,” John Hofmeister told CNN’s Drew Griffin. “Every time I wrote a check I felt that it was a form of extortion, the price of entry, because of the reception that you got when you contributed versus the reception when you did not contribute.” Hofmeister, who ran Shell Oil USA from 2005 through 2008, said he was constantly being asked for political donations, by members of both parties.

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David Fitzpatrick and Drew Griffin, CNN Investigations: January 23, 2014 — Updated 1324 GMT (2124 HKT)

(CNN) — The former president of Shell Oil USA didn’t candy-coat it: America’s political fund-raising system, he said, amounts to legalized extortion.
“I feel extorted,” John Hofmeister told CNN’s Drew Griffin. “Every time I wrote a check I felt that it was a form of extortion, the price of entry, because of the reception that you got when you contributed versus the reception when you did not contribute.”
Hofmeister, who ran Shell Oil USA from 2005 through 2008, said he was constantly being asked for political donations, by members of both parties. It’s against Shell Oil policy, he said, for corporate contributions to be made. So any donations came out of his own pocket — something, he said, he felt forced to do.
Hofmeister said he and other oil executives were summoned to more than a dozen Capitol Hill hearings in 2008 when the retail price of gasoline began to skyrocket. In one hearing, a member of Congress suggested that nationalizing U.S. oil companies might be a way to tamp down prices at the pump.
Not long after one of those hearings, Hofmeister told CNN, several members of Congress pressed him for political contributions. And it’s all perfectly legal.
The influence of politics and money has become a legal game of extortion, critics say, made all the more insidious because the so-called extortionists are politicians who write the laws and legally manipulate the system for their own gain.
“It is a feeding frenzy that’s going on,” said Peter Schweizer of theGovernment Accountability Institute, a nonprofit research group. He’s written a book called “Extortion,” describing America’s political system as one where lawmakers learn how to transform power into cash. “I think we need to somehow break the back of the ability of politicians to leverage their position to extract donations,” Schweizer said.
“Most fund-raisers will tell you the place that you start raising money is from people who can’t say no,” said Schweizer. “So if you’re a government contractor or you’re somebody that’s doing business with the state or federal government, you’re going to be put in a position where you’re going to be expected to raise funds, because if you don’t, the fear might be that you’re going to lose the contract.”
Hofmeister, the former Shell executive, told CNN he realized he would have to cough up several thousand dollars of his own money each year, “if I am going to do my job.”
He said the system is “pay to play” and he agrees that the word “extortion” is accurate, “as harsh as a word that is.” “We talk about corruption in Third World countries. In this case, the corrupters have written a law to make it legal to the corruptees. And I consider that atrocious in the name of democracy,” Hofmeister said.
Schweizer didn’t seem surprised by Hofmeister’s story.
“You hear that from businessmen all the time — that they come to Washington, they appear before a congressional committee, they are grilled on a matter and it is made pretty clear after the fact that, ‘If you make donations or if you do fund-raising for me, I might understand issues a little bit better as far as you are concerned,’” Schweizer told CNN.
It’s just business, said Hofmeister. But he said it’s also a process that includes a healthy dose of political theater.
“The political theater of the hearing matters to them. And that’s exactly the mindset which I used to go into the hearing,” Hofmeister said. To please the powerful politicians, he found himself asking himself questions like “What role shall I play?”
“If you’re testifying, you’re in the subordinate role because the members are always up in a dais looking down at you,” said Hofmeister. “So you know you are subordinate to them. This is their town, their home, you’re an invited guest. But when the hearing is over … the curtains close on the theater. It’s back to business. And business is raising money.”
Now, more than five years after leaving Shell, Hofmeister chairs theNational Urban League and serves on an advisory committee for the U.S. Department of Energy.

Royal Dutch Shell: Reminiscences of an old EP hand

Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 07.56.54Then came the roaring 90s. Everything had to be done faster, shareholder value, bonuses, do like ENRON etc etc. This led to an influx of fast talking americans with me first, rest later attitude and the contractor will fix it. Scandals like the Tejas Gas disaster (carefully kept away from the press) and other bad things emerged (just check out the Donovan website). And the fast talking americans then swarmed out over Shell International and changed the culture. Me first, screw the rest. The rest is history…..

Comment “From an old EP hand” posted on Jan 23rd, 2014 at 11:33 

@relieved
Until the early 90s Shell Oil had many great designers and other top professionals. They were second to none when it came to HPHT welldesigns (and offshore development, geophysics etc). Also very pragmatic and hands-on experience.
I remember Leo Broussard, genuine good old boy. He could smoke a big cigar and drink whiskey without taking the cigar from his mouth. But he knew more about well and completion design than anyone else in the world. And he was always willing to share his knowledge. Just not interested in making a career, his passion was designing complicated completions!
Shell International thought in those days a 10K well was high pressure. At this time Shell Oil was already working on 25k and 30k wells. Shell Oil was not so good at deepwater stuff in hostile environments. They, like all americans, relied too much on API standards, the lowest common denominator they could get away with. The North Sea set the world standards and took the lead.
Then came the roaring 90s. Everything had to be done faster, shareholder value, bonuses, do like ENRON etc etc. This led to an influx of fast talking americans with me first, rest later attitude and the contractor will fix it. Scandals like the Tejas Gas disaster (carefully kept away from the press) and other bad things emerged (just check out the Donovan website).
Phil Carrol was quietly removed about 9 months later for his role in Tejas Gas. He presided over the meeting that approved the purchase during the one time there was no rep from Shell International. Neither Herkstroter nor Moody-Stuart could attend so he moved knowing full well that Herkstroter et all were vehemently opposed. Shell Oil became a bust or boom company.
Shell Oil always has been pragmatic with a can-do attitude. But doing first thinking later and this does not work in extreme environments and pushing the design envelope. They put top people (of the old school) and formed Aera which performed brilliantly and revived Bakersfield.
And the fast talking americans then swarmed out over Shell International and changed the culture. Me first, screw the rest. The rest is history….. Do not make the mistake to assume all americans fall in the fast talking category, I have met several genuinely capable and hardworking people from Shell Oil who put the company first and the rest later. But they were a minority.

Controversy over Shell/Gazprom £4 million gifts to Cambridge University

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Graphic from the remarkable Guardian newspaper article:Unloveable Shell, the goddess of oil (Click on image to enlarge): Sub-headline: For a century, Shell has explored the Earth to make our lives more comfortable, But in its wake, says Andrew Rowell, lies a trail of corruption, despoliation and death

Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 07.56.54The University of Cambridge has come under fire for its acceptance of two benefactions from controversial oil giants, Shell and Gazprom. Gazprom, a Russian oil giant, is the first company to drill arctic oil and was the subject of a high profile Arctic 30 protest. An Amnesty International report found Shell to have made “deeply suspect and often untrue” claims about the causes and volumes of oil spills in the Niger Delta. Speaking exclusively to The Cambridge Student, Charlie Kronick, Greenpeace UK’s Senior Climate Advisor said: “Shell and Gazprom need to buy a lot of social capital – they’re drilling for oil in the Arctic without any credible response plan for the inevitable spills.

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140 of the 600 oil spills in the Niger Delta between January and September 2013 were caused by Shell Image credit: Sosialistisk Ungdom – SU

Bad benefactions: “Do they know what they’re selling?”

Story: Amy Provan
The University of Cambridge has come under fire for its acceptance of two benefactions from controversial oil giants, Shell and Gazprom.
Shell is giving £3.8 million to support the establishment of a laboratory for the Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology. £260,000 from Gazprom will support Russian language training in the University.
Yet Greenpeace UK has criticised ­the University for accepting donations from two such contentious sources.
Gazprom, a Russian oil giant, is the first company to drill arctic oil and was the subject of a high profile Arctic 30 protest. An Amnesty International report found Shell to have made “deeply suspect and often untrue” claims about the causes and volumes of oil spills in the Niger Delta. Rather ironically, the benefactions were announced alongside a continuation of the Arcadia Fund’s support for the Cambridge Conservation Initiative, which funds the Executive Director.
Speaking exclusively to The Cambridge Student, Charlie Kronick, Greenpeace UK’s Senior Climate Advisor said: “Shell and Gazprom need to buy a lot of social capital – they’re drilling for oil in the Arctic without any credible response plan for the inevitable spills.
“If they have a blow-out like the one BP had in the Gulf of Mexico, it could be spewing crude oil into the Arctic ocean for a year before they cap it. When that happens, they’re hoping these donations will act as good PR for them, and that’s what they’re buying here – respectable allies which they expect to need. The question is, do Cambridge know what they’re selling?” One student of Russian at Cambridge finds it a “disgrace that the University should accept funding from a company with such a controversial reputation. I would hate to think that my Russian teaching is being funded by a company that carries out the drilling of oil in the arctic and encouraged the imprisonment of environmental protestors.”
William Kerr, another Russian linguist, bemoaned the lack of funding for his department. “It isn’t ideal, but any contribution to the study of Russian regardless of where it comes from, is something to be welcomed. Funding from a company such as Gazprom is certainly better than no funding at all.”
Meanwhile Cambridge University Amnesty International has said that “the University has an irrefutable responsibility to thoroughly check the sources of all donations and ensure that the benefactions received do not induce or encourage the violation of human rights conventions and comply with the highest ethical standards.”
In a joint statement, CUSU and its Ethical Affairs team told TCS “These benefactions emphasise our university’s lack of an explicit and formalised policy for vetting the donations it receives. We hope that our ongoing dialogue with the University will result in the development of a policy to assess firstly the environmental and social track records of benefactors, and secondly the impact of their donations on teaching and research.”
According to its website, the Department for Chemical Engineering’s is part of a teaching consortium, with companies like Shell. Defending these relationships, the Cambridge Careers Service said, “Students – especially PhD researchers – have a chance to learn/hear more about the work of the company, often during informal chats over the ‘water cooler’ with a current or former member of that company’s staff.”
There is however “never any link between the funds they provide and a requirement for a certain number of Cambridge recruits… we believe in a student’s free choice of employer and would do nothing that might infringe this.”
The University has defended their acceptance of the two benefactions “neither of which represent any kind of political endorsement and neither of which has any strings attached.
“The University has explicit processes for the handling and vetting all benefactions, including published ethical guidelines on the acceptance of donations. In particular, every benefaction over £1 million, or which is likely to give rise to significant public interest is considered in detail by the University’s Advisory Committee on Benefactions and Legal and External Affairs.”
David Street, the Cambridge Greenpeace co-ordinator, has told TCS that he “can emphatically say that accepting these benefactions shows a disregard for the ethics, environmental records and the attitudes towards human rights of these companies. Cambridge University is wealthy enough to be choosy about who they accept benefactions from and it’s disappointing that they are going to accept these ‘gifts’.”

Arctic Ocean oil drilling opponents win appeal

January 22, 201410:19 p.m

SEATTLE — The U.S. government violated the law when it opened millions of acres of the Arctic Ocean to offshore oil drilling, a federal appeals court ruled Wednesday, possibly delaying plans by companies such as Royal Dutch Shell to drill off the northwest coast of Alaska in the near future.
The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ruled that theInterior Department did not properly evaluate the impact of oil development in the Chukchi Sea when it sold more than $2.6 billion in development leases in the environmentally sensitive area in 2008.
A coalition of environmental advocacy groups and Alaska Native organizations sued the federal government, arguing that the U.S. had offered an estimated 30 million acres of oil leases for sale without sufficient scientific information or analysis of potential effects on the region.
The groups also said that when the federal government analyzed the sale, it underestimated how much development could occur if companies discovered oil, a failure that “runs the risk of understating the impacts and the risks of catastrophic spills,” said Michael LeVine, Pacific senior counsel for Oceana, which is part of the coalition of plaintiffs.
On Wednesday, the appeals court sided with the groups that sued the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the Interior Department over Lease Sale 193. Federal officials estimated it would produce only 1 billion barrels of oil.
“Plaintiffs contend that the 1-billion-barrel estimate was chosen arbitrarily, and that [the bureau] did not provide adequate explanation for its selection,” the court said in its ruling. “We agree.”
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management did not respond to calls for comment.
Just over 2 million acres of oil leases were purchased in 2008 out of the 30 million acres the government offered for sale.
Shell, the biggest player in the region, has spent nearly $5 billion preparing to drill in the Arctic. The company suspended its drilling efforts in 2013 after a disastrous 2012 season, during which a drilling rig ran aground, among other mishaps.
Shell, which joined the lawsuit on the side of the government, has submitted an exploration plan for federal approval for possible drilling this year. The company announced Friday that its fourth-quarter 2013 earnings would be lower than expected, in part because of “higher exploration expenses and lower volumes.”
Curtis Smith, a company spokesman, said in an email that Shell was still reviewing the court’s opinion.
By a 2-1 vote, the appeals court sent the case back to a federal court in Alaska. Oceana’s LeVine says it is unclear what will happen next.
“Were the government to fully and fairly evaluate the potential risks and benefits,” he said in a statement, “it would decide not to sell oil and gas leases in the Chukchi Sea at this time.”
Greenpeace officials also applauded the appeals court decision.
“Drilling for oil in the Chukchi Sea poses an enormous risk to the region’s people and wildlife,” Gustavo Ampugnani, the advocacy group’s Arctic campaign leader, said in a statement. “It locks us into a dangerous and dirty fossil fuel future, and it pushes us far closer to global climate catastrophe.”

The TRUTH will set you FREE.

JOHN DONOVAN JANUARY 22, 2014 ARTICLES


Alaska Coastal Oil Drilling Challenge Revived by U.S. Court

Screen Shot 2013-11-01 at 09.31.18Alaskan coastal drilling by oil companies including ConocoPhillips (COP:US) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) may be further delayed after a U.S. court revived conservation group claims that the government acted illegally in opening almost 30 million acres on the continental shelf to energy exploration.

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By Karen Gullo January 22, 2014
Alaskan coastal drilling by oil companies including ConocoPhillips (COP:US) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) may be further delayed after a U.S. court revived conservation group claims that the government acted illegally in opening almost 30 million acres on the continental shelf to energy exploration.
Sierra Club and other organizations sued the government after the $2.6 billion sale of development leases for the Chukchi Sea off the northwest coast of Alaska in 2008, saying the amount of oil from the leases was far higher than the 1 billion barrels the U.S. Interior Department had estimated in an an environmental review.
The U.S. Court of Appeals in San Francisco today concluded the estimate was “chosen arbitrarily” and meant that the Interior Department “based its decision on inadequate information about the amount of oil to be produced pursuant to the lease sale.” The decision reverses a judge’s 2012 ruling dismissing the lawsuit.
“The agency is going to have to revise or supplement its analysis of the lease sale,” Erik Grafe, an Earthjustice attorney who argued the case, said in a phone interview. “We think the agency shouldn’t allow any drilling on this basis.”
Marjorie Weisskohl, a spokeswoman for the Interior Department, and Kelly op de Weegh, a spokeswoman for The Hague-based Shell, didn’t immediately respond to voice-mail messages seeking comment on the ruling.

Bush Administration

The conservation groups said in their complaint that the Bush administration’s decision to open the Chukchi Sea to oil and gas exploration violated the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.
The U.S., saying that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management already had analyzed the environmental impact at the behest of a federal judge in Alaska, contended that supplemental environmental impact statements had adequately addressed the impact of drilling on whales and other species as well as the generation of greenhouse gases.
ConocoPhillips, based in Houston, and Shell’s Gulf of Mexico unit joined the case on the side of the federal government.
The case is Native Village of Point Hope v. Jewell, 12-35287, U.S. Court of Appeals for Ninth Circuit (San Francisco).
To contact the reporter on this story: Karen Gullo in federal court in San Francisco at kgullo@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Hytha at mhytha@bloomberg.net

Shell working to contain fire at Texas facility

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Source: Reuters – Wed, 22 Jan 2014 09:19 PM
Jan 22 (Reuters) – Royal Dutch Shell Plc emergency personnel were trying to contain a fire at its facility in Deer park, Texas, the oil company said in a message posted on a community information phone line on Wednesday.
The Deer Park facility houses a 327,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery and a chemical plant and is a 50-50 joint venture between Shell and Mexican national oil company Pemex.
The fire will not affect the community, industrial neighbors or other operating units at the facility, the message from an environmental supervisor at the plant said.

Big Oil Is Unloading Billions of Assets in Spring Cleanup

Royal Dutch Shell PLC decided it’s time to clean out its global energy portfolio. The oil giant could unload as much as $30 billion in assets as part of the purge.

by Matt DiLallo, The Motley Fool Jan 22nd 2014

Royal Dutch Shell PLC decided it’s time to clean out its global energy portfolio. The oil giant could unload as much as $30 billion in assets as part of the purge.
Shell gameShell needs to make some changes after it warned that its profits would be significantly lower than analysts were expecting. But the company has been hinting for a while that it would be paring back its portfolio. Earlier this year Shell announced it was exiting several U.S. shale basins after returns failed to meet its expectations.
Because of this the company is looking for buyers for itsMississippian Lime assets in Kansas and Oklahoma as well as itsEagle Ford Shale assets in Texas.

Shell’s Recent Profit Warning Won’t Be the Last

Thanks to upstream cost overruns and downstream overcapacity, 2013 probably will not be the last year Shell faces low earnings. Not only is Gorgon facing big challenges, the Shell-ExxonMobil-Total-KazMunaiGas-Eni Kashagan project was recently shut down due to pipeline leaks. The field’s current $50 billion cost is more than five times its original price

By Joshua BondyJanuary 22, 2014

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A  ) just issued a big profit warning for the fourth quarter of 2013, bringing its expected full-year 2013 earnings to $16.8 billion. This is a significant fall from its 2012 full-year earnings of $27.2 billion. Thanks to upstream cost overruns and downstream overcapacity, 2013 probably will not be the last year Shell faces low earnings.
Downstream challengesShell’s refineries put a hole in its Q4 2013 earnings. Its Asia-Pacific and European refineries are facing margin pressures and for good reason. They don’t have access to cheap U.S. crude. They are forced to buy expensive Brent crude and pay a premium relative to U.S. refiners. Also, U.S. refiners have access to cheap natural gas and natural gas liquids.
As of Dec. 31, 2012, Shell had equity interests of at least 13% in eight Asian refineries. As if feedstock issues weren’t enough, the Asian refinery market is facing overcapacity and low margins for years to come. Thanks to expansions in India, China, and other nations, analysts project that Asia could have a refining surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in 2018.
HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC  ) is the opposite of Shell. HollyFrontier operates five small refineries with a total capacity of 443,000 barrels per day of capacity. Thanks to its location in the American Midwest it has great access to cheap crudes, with a number of promising investments on the table. For $300 million HollyFrontier is expanding its Woods Cross facility to produce a relatively secure $125 million in additional annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
HollyFrontier does have its challenges. The closing Brent-West Texas Intermediate spread will put downward pressure on its net income. HollyFrontier’s 2012 net income per barrel was more than $10, but it could head toward the $2.69 average it posted from 2001 to 2010 when WTI traded at a premium to Brent.
Shell’s upstream challengesThe huge Gorgon LNG project keeps seeing cost increases. Recently the big partner, Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) , upped the project’s cost by $2 billion to a total of $54 billion. This cost increase comes after Chevron previously added $15 billion to Gorgon’s price tag. Cost overruns are hurting Big Oil across the board, as Shell andExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) each own 25% of Gorgon.
Not only is Gorgon facing big challenges, the Shell-ExxonMobil-Total-KazMunaiGas-Eni Kashagan project was recently shut down due to pipeline leaks. The field’s current $50 billion cost is more than five times its original price, and recent delays have pushed back its commercial start date even further. High levels of hydrogen sulfide make production especially difficult and point to further setbacks in the years to come.
In addition to the aforementioned problem projects, Shell’s expensive Arctic drilling has come up short.
Delays and cost overruns in these big projects mean more of Shell’s cash must be diverted toward capital expenditures. At the same time there is less money flowing in from production. From 2012 to 2013 Shell’s net capital investment is expected to increase from $29.8 billion to $44.3 billion. Lower upstream volumes are another negative factor for Shell, helping to push expected Q4 2013 upstream earnings down to $2.5 billion from $4.4 billion in Q4 2012.
Once more of Shell’s big upstream projects come online, its volumes and earnings should head upward; but it may be a number of years or more until the major kinks are worked out.
Shell is not aloneCost overruns and upstream production challenges are not unique to Shell. In the last four quarters, ExxonMobil saw its revenue fall from $126 billion to $109 billion and its EBITDA fall from $33 billion to $15 billion. Its presence in both the Gorgon and Kashagan projects has put stress on ExxonMobil’s capex budget.
Just as Shell is having problems trying to maintain its upstream volumes, ExxonMobil is facing similar challenges. ExxonMobil was able to boost its Q3 2013 upstream volumes relative to Q3 2012 but only by 1.5% on an oil-equivalent basis. In Q3 2013 it produced a massive 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and there is a good chance this could fall slightly in the coming years. There are only so many mega-projects available in the world.
Chevron is a different storyChevron will have an easier time maintaining its upstream volumes than ExxonMobil. In Q3 2013 it produced 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, significantly less than ExxonMobil’s 4 mmboepd. Chevron is active in the Vaca Muerta region in Argentina, off the coast of the Congo, and it is already producing in the Brazilian Papa-Terra field.
In the last four quarters Chevron’s EBITDA did fall from $14 billion to $11 billion, but compared to ExxonMobil it fared much better. Overall Chevron’s smaller size will help it to be more nimble and stay out of projects like Kashagan.
Final thoughtsShell is a massive company stuck with many refineries and expensive greenfield projects. It has a challenging future ahead as it struggles to bring large upstream projects online and on budget. Investing in smaller companies like HollyFrontier or Chevron helps you make sure that your investment dollars are shoved into fewer $50 billion dollar quagmires.

Shell CEO plays ‘new boss’ card

Screen Shot 2013-10-01 at 07.56.54Royal Dutch Shell’s chief executive Ben van Beurden has, on the face of it, played the classic “new boss” card – using a barely justified profit warning to brighten his own future by making the past look bad. The truth is quite different, the energy company says, and possibly far more worrying for investors.  ”After taking legal advice we concluded we had an obligation to disclose the Q4 numbers as soon as possible in order to comply with stock exchange rules on fair disclosure.”

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ANDREW CALLUS:   22 Jan 2014
Royal Dutch Shell’s chief executive Ben van Beurden has, on the face of it, played the classic “new boss” card – using a barely justified profit warning to brighten his own future by making the past look bad.
The truth is quite different, the energy company says, and possibly far more worrying for investors.
Three trading days after van Beurden’s warning last Friday that quarterly net profit will fall far short of expectations, Shell’s shares are barely down 1.5 per cent in a flat market.
But while circumstances conspired to make the fourth quarter particularly bad for Shell, there is no guarantee that the group will bounce back this year.
Van Beurden, some shareholders say, must do more than tighten up a bit and sweep away a few cobwebs when he reveals his strategy in March.
A fortnight into his tenure, the Dutchman broke a traditional pre-results silence at Europe’s biggest investor-controlled oil company.
Pre-empting the official announcement on January 30, he revealed numbers showing October-December last year was Shell’s worst quarter since 2009.
He also called the whole 2013 performance “not what I expect from Shell”.
Few commentators and analysts failed to connect the rhetoric with the fact that removal boxes have scarcely been cleared from the boss’s office in The Hague.
Using such warnings, new chiefs frequently try with varying degrees of subtlety to shift the blame for a company’s problems on to the past leadership, and lower expectations for their own tenure.
“It’s standard practice, but this was done very transparently, and that’s high risk,” said a person who has deep experience of corporate presentation strategies, but was not involved.
“Everyone knows the game he is playing.”
At US$2.9 billion ($3.5 billion) for adjusted earnings on a current cost of supply basis, the fourth quarter net profit figure van Beurden gave was well below market expectations of around US$4.0b.
But misses like this are common in the energy industry, and rarely have a significant or long-lasting impact on investor sentiment. Profit warnings to flag them are also rare.
Shell missed forecasts just as badly in the second quarter last year, making a US$4.6b profit compared with analysts’ average prediction of US$5.7b.
That time it did not alert shareholders in advance. Neither did it when profits beat estimates by a similar amount in the first three months, making US$7.5b versus the US$6.5b forecast.
Some of Shell’s rivals have also produced surprises in the past two years, with results both above and below expectations.
Executives and investors alike insist that quarterly and even annual performance is a poor measure of an industry that works on much longer investment timescales.
Some also question the quality of forecasts made by analysts at brokerages and investment banks.
The rest of van Beurden’s statement went over old ground, citing “weak industry conditions in downstream oil products, higher exploration expenses, and lower upstream volumes”.
For the oil and gas production division – the main driver of profits – van Beurden said there had been a high level of maintenance activity during the quarter in high value production areas, including the Pearl Gas to Liquids (GTL) plant in Qatar, and in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).
Security in Nigeria continued to be “challenging”, he said, US operations remained lossmaking, and currency factors in Australia had worked against the company.
All of these factors had already been flagged by finance director Simon Henry at the end of October, in some detail.
“Our focus will be on improving Shell’s financial results, achieving better capital efficiency and on continuing to strengthen our operational performance and project delivery,” van Beurden promised, using words his predecessor, Peter Voser, would recognise.
DEEPER WORRY
So much for appearances. Shell had deeper concerns, according to Andy Norman, the company’s Vice President Media Relations.
His comments set against the limited market reaction suggest management is far more shocked than investors have been by the scale of the downturn.
Shell says the warning was dictated neither by analysts’ average or “consensus” forecast nor the new leadership.
“Consensus was not a factor in the announcement,” Norman told Reuters, adding: “These decisions are made by clear accounting rules. They’re not influenced by senior executive changes.”
Norman acknowledged that when Shell announced its third quarter results it flagged operational factors that were likely to make the rest of the year tough.
“While this operational guidance was correct, the factors turned more negative than we expected during the quarter,” he said.
“At US$2.9b, Q4 earnings are expected to be well below the US$5-7b range we’ve typically seen in most quarters in recent years.
“After taking legal advice we concluded we had an obligation to disclose the Q4 numbers as soon as possible in order to comply with stock exchange rules on fair disclosure.”
How much the fourth quarter problems persist is crucial, according to Oswald Clint, analyst at Bernstein.
“It may be that everything went against Shell this quarter but it doesn’t mean it will bounce back next quarter either,” he said.
Even before Friday’s statement, investors were increasingly expecting radical action from van Beurden, who was promoted to the post on January 1 after Voser’s surprise early retirement. He has his chance at a strategy day on March 13.
“The market’s not going to judge him on this (statement), but they will be disappointed if – come that first management strategy day where he stands up and gives his vision – it’s all a bit more of the same, a bit of tightening up and sweeping away a few old cobwebs,” said a British-based institutional shareholder who asked not to be named.
“That’s not going to be enough.”
Some analysts and investors advocate a gradual structural move towards high-margin LNG, and away from moribund refining – a departure from the traditional integrated oil model which they hope might highlight the value in Shell’s market-leading LNG position.
Others want to go in that direction more quickly. There has also been talk the underperforming US business may be jettisoned entirely.
BEURDEN OF RESPONSIBILITY
Leaving aside more radical measures, van Beurden’s task is tricky – not least because this week he lost his head of international upstream operations, Andy Brown, for an unspecified period of medical leave.
Van Beurden has little room for manoeuvre in an industry that has to invest 10 and 15 years ahead, yet must satisfy shareholders with a much shorter attention span.
“I’d be surprised if you were looking at radical changes because an awful lot of the project pipeline – stuff that takes years to put together – it’s not easy to move that around,” said VTB Capital analyst Colin Smith.
Shell’s net investment spending – money flowing out – was $44.3b in 2013. Cash flow from operations – money in – was US$40.4b.
Those two numbers broadly reflect level or falling output and prices set against rising costs, and they show that Shell effectively “burned” nearly US$4b last year.
Shareholders fear for their US$11b of annual dividends as a result, and Shell has been seen as the least attentive of its peer group to this industry-wide concern.
Returns on investment data going back to April 2010 show the company underperforming three out of four of its main rivals – the fourth being BP, which took a direct hit from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in that month.
Lately though, like its peers, Shell has promised that capital spending has peaked. Its move to abandon a GTL project in the United States and likely abandonment of its Arrow LNG project in Australia are signs of those efforts.
Also falling into line with its rivals, Shell has promised to step up asset sales, an action which both brings in cash and cuts outgoings.
Shell has a four-year net investment target of US$130b for 2012 to 2015.
Including US$30 billion spent in 2012 and US$44.3b in 2013, it spent over US$74b in the first two years.
That leaves less than US$23b a year for 2014 and 2015, US$20b short of 2013′s budget.
If van Beurden is going to meet that target – and some say he will dump it either on January 30 at the results day or at the March strategy day – he will have to make up that gap through US$20b a year-worth of asset sales, project-abandonment, and other cost saving measures.
– Reuters

Joint bid for Shell’s Australian refining and retail business

Screen Shot 2014-01-09 at 09.32.08Jan 22 (Reuters) – : Macquarie Group and Glencore Xstrata have joined forces to bid for Royal Dutch Shell’s Australian refining and retailbusiness, the Australian Financial Review reported on Wednesday.


The TRUTH will set you FREE.

SHELL CIRCUMVENTED RA 7641

SYNDICATED ESTAFA


MY QUEST FOR SWINDLED 

RETIREMENT PAY BY SHELL



SWINDLING ITO, SYNDICATED ESTAFA


HOT PURSUIT
DUTY OF LAW ENFORCEMENT ENTITIES


SHELL SWINDLING OF RETIREMENT PAY 5TH YEAR

1001counts
SEE BELOW FOR THE 1001ST   TIME THE REITERATION OF DEMAND PAYMENT OF RETIREMENT PAY WHICH SHELL REFUSED TO HONOR IN THE PRESENCE AND DEEMED APPROVAL OF THE HONORABLE MAGISTRATES OF THE SUPREME COURT OF THE PHILIPPINES


Dishonest scales are an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is His delight... Proverbs Chapter 11  v. 1
Retirement Pay Law circumvented by Shell subject to penal provision provided for by Article 288 of the Labor Code of the Philippines.





CONTENTS

.ENTERTAINMENT (4) 10 CCR § 2695.5 (1) 18DEC15 (112) 1A_MEDIA (8) 2014 CHRISTMAS MESSAGE (1) 2015 Miss Universe (1) 2016 SONA (1) 2020 EXCLUSION (1) 4TH OF JULY (1) abante clipping (1) ABOLITION OF THE COURT OF APPEALS (1) ABRAHAM LINCOLN (1) ABS-CBN (5) ABS-CBN NEWS (6) ABSOLUTE PARDON (1) ABU SAYAFF GROUP (2) ABUSE OF JURISDICTION (1) ACADEMIC FREEDOM (1) ACCRA (19) ACE VEDA (2) ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF EMAIL RECEIPT (2) aclu (3) AIRPORT HACKS (1) AIRWAVES (1) AIZA SEGUERRA (1) ALAN PETER CAYETANO (4) ALBAYALDE (8) ALBERTO ROMULO (1) ALDEN AND MAINE (1) Alfred Clayton (55) ALLEGATIONS OF MISCONDUCT (4) ALTERNET (6) ALVAREZ (1) ALVIN CUDIA (2) ALYAS BIKOY (1) AMADO VALDEZ (1) ANARCHY (1) ANDRES BONIFACIO (2) ANGEL LAZARO (1) ANGELO REYES (1) ANNEX 5 (5) ANNUAL REMINDERS (1) ANTHONY TABERNA . GERRY BAJA (2) ANTI GRAFT AND CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT (2) ANTI-TERRORISM ACT OF 2020 (1) ANTONIO (26) AQUACULTURE (1) AQUASCAPING (1) ARNOLD GONZALEZ (1) Arnold Schwarzenegger (5) ARTBOARD (15) ARTEMIO PANGANIBAN (1) atty dodo dulay (3) ATTY THEODORE TE (2) ATTY. AILEEN LOURDES LIZADA (3) ATTY. 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