Can Royal Dutch Shell Sustain Its High Dividends?
Trefis Team, CONTRIBUTOR: OCT 7, 2015
Royal Dutch Shell‘s dividend yield has reached a high of over 8%, given that its stock price fell by almost 18% in the last three months. The company has committed to paying its current dividend for the current financial year despite the pressure on its net income. However, it is now uncertain whether the company will be able to sustain this dividend in the future. The market seems bearish on Shell’s growth prospects.Our current price estimate for Shell stands at around 30% above the market price. In our bear case scenario, our price estimate faces a 20% downside, based on a reduced forecast for global crude oil prices, Shell’s exploration success, and downstream EBITDA margins. However, we remain optimistic on Shell, given its long standing history of dividend payments, we believe that Shell will not initiate a dividend cut.
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